NFL Week 6 picks: Rams bounce back, Titans remain winless
Time flies, and Week 6 of the NFL season has arrived. We’re a bit late in getting the picks party started, but we’ll do our best to go from here. Alongside my colleague @schedulerelease, we’ll break down each matchup for you every week, from now until Super Bowl Sunday.
All lines via DraftKings. All times ET.
London: Houston Texans (2-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network
Line: Jacksonville -2.5, O/U 40.5
This is a must-win game for the Texans. Sitting at 1-4, their hopes of winning the division essentially dissolve if they can’t beat Jacksonville. Much like Philadelphia, Houston can stifle the Jaguars’ run game and force Trevor Lawrence to throw from the pocket. This might come down to yet another last-minute field goal, which seems like the norm nowadays for international games.
Brandon’s pick: Texans 23, Jaguars 20
This is a huge game in the AFC South. This is a great spot for Jacksonville, staying in London while Houston is traveling. Houston might only total twenty yards on the ground, considering how their putrid run game matches up against Jacksonville’s stout run defense. The Jaguars will be on track to run away with the division if they win this game, but this is a must-win for Houston. Houston is getting healthier on defense and still has the dangerous front four that can dominate a banged-up Jags’ offensive line. CJ Stroud is playing well this year, and the Jaguars might not know what’s coming from their offense with Marvin Harrison Jr. in the lineup.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Texans 21, Jaguars 16
Chicago Bears (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Chicago -1.5, O/U 40.5
Both offenses are superpowered in this game. Caleb Williams is back, which makes this game a complete toss-up. Michael Penix Jr. leading the Atlanta offense has spun it out of whatever funk Cooper Rush had the unit in. On the other hand, both defensive units need work. At the end of the day, the team I trust more to get a stop at the end of the game is Atlanta.
Brandon’s pick: Falcons 30, Bears 26
This is a matchup of the top two rushing offenses in the NFL through five weeks, with Chicago at No. 1 and Atlanta at No. 2. I don’t care if Williams is back; I think this is an amazing matchup for the Falcons. Facing a seemingly nonexistent pass rush down their best player in Montez Sweat, Penix is going to have all day in the pocket. Drake London should have a field day against an underwhelming secondary. The Bears’ defense overperformed against mediocre offenses at home and got exposed last week against the Packers. The Bears can have some success running the ball against the Falcons, but it won’t be enough to get the victory in this spot.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Falcons 34, Bears 20
Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Baltimore -3.5, O/U 40.5
The Ravens seem to drop an awful game to the Browns every year. Deshaun Watson has been passable at quarterback these first five weeks, and Lamar Jackson will be hobbled at best, assuming he even plays. I’ll assume he’s ruled out this week, though, and Tyler Huntley managed the offense capably in a Week 5 overtime win against Baltimore. Ravens take it, and Watson’s future in Cleveland gets murkier by the week.
Brandon’s pick: Ravens 27, Browns 15
The Browns seem to steal a win against the Ravens almost every year, so it’s tempting to pick them. Picking this game is so difficult because there are so many unknowns. A lot of young core Browns players are dealing with injuries. On the other hand, we don’t know who’s starting at QB for the Ravens. However, Huntley has proven year after year that he is comfortable in this system, minimizes mistakes, and manages games well. I’ll take the Ravens in a close one, but if the Browns get some health going into the game, don’t be surprised if they pull off the upset.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Ravens 20, Browns 17
Tennessee Titans (0-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Indianapolis -7, O/U 40.5
Cam Ward has taken nothing close to the second-year jump we expected him to. This Tennessee defense, expected to be spurred alive by Robert Saleh, has failed miserably. Daniel Jones and the Colts have had their fair share of struggles, but the Titans are an easy get-right opponent as Indianapolis looks to stack easy wins for a wild-card push.
Brandon’s pick: Colts 34, Titans 16
While I was high on the Colts going into the year, they have not particularly impressed me thus far outside of a winnable game at Kansas City and an amazing start to the year from their kicker, Spencer Shrader. Jones has lost mobility, and Alec Pierce’s injury is limiting the explosiveness of their offense. That being said, they’re playing the Titans. While I think Tennessee can get into a bit of a rhythm against this subpar Colts defense, they simply aren’t talented enough to win this road divisional game.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 20
New York Jets (2-3) at New England Patriots (3-2)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: New England -7.5, O/U 40.5
After a tumultuous start to the season for New England, they look ready to take off. Fresh off statement wins against Buffalo and Las Vegas, the Patriots feel more complete on both sides of the football. However, Drake Maye is still prone to turnovers, and he’ll hand it to a New York defense at least once that has seen a resurgence behind the efforts of David Bailey and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Geno Smith and the Jets keep it close, but New England moves to 4-2.
Brandon’s pick: Patriots 24, Jets 22
Since getting embarrassed in Jacksonville, the Patriots have rattled off two straight wins against Buffalo and Las Vegas. They are looking much more like, if not even better than, the team that made the Super Bowl last year. Maye is rounding back into form after a rough start to the season, and the Patriots will likely get AJ Brown and Christian Gonzalez back. The Jets looked solid last week in a rough-weather game against the Browns with a breakout performance from their star rookie, Bailey. However, their offense is extremely limited and Garrett Wilson-dependent, especially with Breece Hall out. Look for New England to pick up an important key divisional win.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Patriots 27, Jets 10
New Orleans Saints (1-4) at New York Giants (3-1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Saints -1.5, O/U 40.5
This feels like a win-or-get-fired type of game for Kellen Moore. The Giants’ record is highly deceiving, as they’ve seen injury after injury bombard their roster. Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns are on IR while Abdul Carter, Isaiah Likely, and Greg Newsome II are all sidelined. New Orleans is in desperate need of a win after a promising offseason has not translated in the slightest. Tyler Shough and the Saints get the win, but questions will continue to swirl.
Brandon’s pick: Saints 30, Giants 22
It’s wild that a 1-4 team is favored on the road over a 3-1-1 team, but the Saints have played an incredibly tough schedule while the Giants have eked out close wins (and a tie) against some of the bottom-feeders in the league. This is probably the most difficult game of the week to pick. I’d like to see the Giants’ run game get going a bit against the Saints’ 30th-ranked run defense and generate some pressure against a banged-up Saints offensive line. That being said, Shough should have some success against the Giants’ secondary. I’m going to take the Giants here in a close one to improve their home record to 4-0 on the season.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Giants 28, Saints 24
Carolina Panthers (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Carolina -3.5, O/U 38.5
Bryce Young has been playing the best football of his career to open this season, anchoring a Carolina offense that has gone nuclear to open the season (save for a Browns stinker). Jalen Hurts is out Sunday for Philadelphia, and while his absence didn’t ultimately affect this pick, Tanner McKee is not Hurts. The offense will be starkly different, and with the laundry list of injuries that Philadelphia has right now, Carolina will roll.
Brandon’s pick: Panthers 30, Eagles 21
There’s not much to be said about this game. Carolina is coming off a bye while Philadelphia is coming back from London. The Eagles are running a preseason offense in this game - it is absolutely wild how many injuries they have. Vic Fangio’s defense has played quite well, and the pass rush has been much better these past two games, but it won’t be enough. Young will do just enough to get the Panthers above .500.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Panthers 17, Eagles 13
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Pittsburgh -2.5, O/U 39.5
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Jalon Daniels got it done last week against what is a miserable Dallas defense, but asking for TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith in the game directly following that is a tall order. Jaylen Warren massacred the Colts’ front seven last week, and that pattern continues on Sunday in Tampa Bay. Todd Bowles will have questions to be answered.
Brandon’s pick: Steelers 31, Buccaneers 9
The Steelers and Aaron Rodgers put up a nice showing last week against the Colts, with Warren having his best career game. However, the Steelers have possibly the biggest home-road performance split of any team in the NFL, and Jalon Daniels impressed me last week in a huge win in Dallas. The Bucs’ D has quietly been solid, especially their run defense, and the Steelers’ WR core is banged up. The Buccaneers are still right in the race for the NFC South, and I think they make things interesting with a little upset against Pittsburgh.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Steelers 17
Arizona Cardinals (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Los Angeles -12.5, O/U 40.5
Possibly the easiest pick of the week. Sean McVay is going to be hungry after the disaster that the world was exposed to in end-of-game management on Monday night. Jeremiyah Love and Trey McBride are talented, but the rest of the Cardinals roster is not. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have a field day while the Rams improve and aim to get back in the NFC West chase.
Brandon’s pick: Rams 45, Cardinals 13
Coming off an overtime blunder against the Bills (which I attended), the Rams will get back on track here. After the Cardinals impressed us in Week 1, they have fallen back to being one of the worst teams in the NFL. They aren’t able to get Love working in the backfield, and their defense is playing just as bad as last year. The Rams’ passing offense should have another day.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Rams 38, Cardinals 14
Los Angeles Chargers (0-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Kansas City -8.5, O/U 40.5
The Chargers have to win at some point…right? Actually, they don’t. Los Angeles has been massacred on both sides of the ball through the first five weeks of play, and Justin Herbert has thrown the ball worse than we’ve ever seen. Part of that may be Mike McDaniel, but Herbert is just making inexplicably poor decisions right now. The Chiefs, on the contrary, have been nearly perfect. Sixty percent off on the Los Angeles garage sale, yet, anyone?
Brandon’s pick: Chiefs 26, Chargers 19
The Chiefs are off a bye and will face the Chargers in an undefeated vs. winless matchup, which was supposed to be CBS’s game of the week before the Chargers decided to start 0-5. If Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Joe Alt end up playing, I actually think this could be a good matchup for LA. The Chargers defense has been solid, and the Chiefs’ WR core is dealing with some major injuries. I simply cannot pick the Chargers to win here, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than people think.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Chiefs 21, Chargers 17
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Buffalo -4.5, O/U 40.5
Game of the week, one could say. Josh Allen and the Bills against Kirk Cousins and the Raiders — who would’ve expected that before Week 1? The Raiders have fallen off the mountain a bit after the first few weeks, but the Bills have had turnover issues that have plagued them for years and have never been resolved. Just ask James Cook, who nearly cost Buffalo the game on Monday night. It’s a toss-up for me, but I think Cousins gets it done.
Brandon’s pick: Raiders 33, Bills 30
The Bills are heavy road favorites against a Raiders team that has seemingly fallen back to earth after tough losses against the Patriots and Chiefs. Buffalo is staying out west, practicing at UC Irvine on a short week after an emotional overtime win at SoFi on Monday. The Raiders got embarrassed on the road in New England, but I think they’ll learn from that loss and be ready to play in this one. I’m expecting a shootout in this one, but I can’t pick against Allen here.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Bills 34, Raiders 28
SNF: Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock
Line: Green Bay -1.5, O/U 40.5
What if I just picked everyone to lose here? The Packers are a disaster in that they can’t run the football, their receiving corps hasn’t put it together with Jordan Love, and their defense has gotten shredded to bits. Another team that’s had their defense shredded in every game? The Cowboys. The Cowboys offense is very, very good, yet has hilariously boneheaded games in which they forget the sport that they’re playing. Normally, though, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are a force. Dallas’ horrid defense is the only reason I’m picking Green Bay to win here.
Brandon’s pick: Packers 34, Cowboys 33
Dallas got handled by the Bucs last Thursday, allowing Bucky Irving to gash them on the ground. Their offense looked confused for nearly 3 quarters of that game. Meanwhile, the Packers put up their best showing of the season, forcing 5 takeaways on defense and displaying the sheer explosiveness of their offense with a surprisingly elite receiving duo of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. The Packers will be able to replicate some of that success against another subpar Dallas defense, but I think the Cowboys will generate just enough pass rush to take advantage of a bad Packers offensive line. The injuries on the Packers’ defense are piling up, and they have yet to face a quarterback as good as Dak. I’ll take the Cowboys with the upset on SNF and put both of these teams back at .500 on the year.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Cowboys 33, Packers 31
MNF: Washington Commanders (1-3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (5-0)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN
Line: San Francisco -7.5, O/U 40.5
Kinda hard to pick a team to win that forgot what a clock was, wouldn’t you say? The Commanders (mostly Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels) have been through the wringer this week, all while the 49ers are a quiet 5-0 while obliterating the Rams and closing out Seattle. Their locker room may have a built-in blue tent, but their performance shows no signs of it. San Francisco rolls, and it won’t be close.
Brandon’s pick: 49ers 44, Commanders 15
The 49ers have looked nearly unstoppable these first few weeks and could be getting some players back this week, including Juszczyk and Bosa. Jayden Daniels looked a lot like the dual-threat QB that phased the league his rookie season last week. I expect the Commanders to move the ball well in this one, hopefully giving Croskey-Merritt more touches. Washington has some recent history with taking down undefeated teams on the road on Monday nights (2020 at Pittsburgh, 2022 at Philadelphia), but I cannot pick against the 49ers with the way they’ve been playing so far.
@schedulerelease’s pick: 49ers 27, Commanders 24
