Which game will be flexed into Week 18 SNF?

Week 18 is far away. And I mean, 4 and a half months-level far. We won’t be able to decipher playoff projections until Week 11, let alone determine the NFL’s flex schedule this far in advance. As a reminder, the NFL also instituted a brand-new triple-header on Week 18’s Saturday (this year, that date is January 9). The early game will be carried by Netflix in an exclusive broadcast while the afternoon and late games will be carried by ABC and ESPN ahead of February’s Super Bowl LXI. That makes for a total of four primetime games spread across the Week 18 slate, but of course, Sunday Night Football is the masterpiece of them all. An entire season may remain ahead, but top candidates still exist as the frontrunners for Game 272 of the 2026 NFL regular season on NBC, and it’ll all be broken down here.

16. Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

This one feels pretty self-explanatory. The Bengals, boasting the league’s easiest schedule (per ESPN’s Football Power Index), have a rare opportunity to make strides in the AFC and return to the postseason for the first time since 2022. That by itself represents a generally-solid shot at primetime. However, the Browns, for lack of a better term, are a complete mess. Cleveland chose Deshaun Watson as its Week 1 starting QB, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to argue that we could see Shedeur Sanders by the time the Browns open at home in Week 3. Myles Garrett was traded to the Los Angeles Rams in a summer blockbuster trade, and several other critical veterans also left in an offseason filled with tumult. The term “unwatchable” is rarely used in professional football, but it may be applicable with this current Browns team.

15. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers are expected to be a very good team this year, and in other versions of this schedule, they’d be a frontrunner to take the Sunday night slot in Week 18. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and newcomer Mike Evans star on the offensive side of the ball with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner returning from season-ending injuries in 2025 on the defensive side. However, this game is painfully similar to the one above in that the Cardinals are simply not very good. They’re far more watchable, retaining Trey McBride and drafting running back Jeremiyah Love with the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft. However, their signal-caller situation once again confounds, seeing veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett leading the room with Gardner Minshew II and Carson Beck (the 65th overall pick this year) behind him. Can Brissett sling the ball every now and then? Absolutely, but can he lead an NFL team to wins over an eighteen-week season? Doubtful. Arizona was 1-11 last year with Brissett under center (no, not a typo), and there’s no indication that this year’s team is any better than last’s. I would be relatively unsurprised to see Beck take the starting reins by midseason, if not sooner.

14. New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is quite possibly the best quarterback on the planet right now, and new target DJ Moore alongside Khalil Shakir, James Cook III, and Dalton Kincaid should give him a lot to work with under first-year head coach Joe Brady. If the other team was any good, this game would be a lot higher on the list, seeing the ratings draw of the New York market. Unfortunately, the Jets haven’t sniffed the playoffs since 2010, and there’s no source of optimism that they will this year, either. They, like Arizona and Cincinnati, seem to be setting themselves up for the 2027 offseason, and frankly, who can really blame them? Geno Smith will lead the paltry New York offense after struggling miserably in Las Vegas last season. With Sauce Gardner, Quincy Williams, Jermaine Johnson II, and Quinnen Williams all gone (compared to Week 1 of last season), the defense will be patchwork until standout players emerge. Head coach Aaron Glenn has his work cut out for him, but there’s hope that 2027 will bring a franchise quarterback into the fold. For 2026, though, at least, the Jets are going nowhere.

13. Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

This game is intriguing for a lot of reasons, and there’s promise in the Dolphins entering the future. The receiving corps and defense are depleted after the loss of receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, linebacker Bradley Chubb, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. This season is widely seen as a rebuilding year for Miami with 2027 showing much more promise, but head coach Jeff Hafley arrived in the offseason alongside Malik Willis from the Packers, and I have a high amount of confidence that Willis has learned a lot from his time in Green Bay. De’Von Achane will have a massive year, as usual, and while a playoff berth feels improbable, I don’t think a competitive team in South Beach is all that impossible. However, results come from actions, not words, and Miami will need to prove it on the field this year. On the other side, the Patriots have come off a Super Bowl season in which they saw the easiest schedule in the NFL, by far, in 2025. They’ll face the twenty-third hardest schedule this year (per ESPN’s Football Power Index), so it’s not quite a massive step-up, but the widely held belief is that New England is in for a regression year this season, and I tend to agree.

12. Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Second-year quarterback Cam Ward enters the picture sporting a new head coach in Robert Saleh and a bolstered offense in receivers Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. The defense has also been rebuilt quite a bit, with defensive ends John Franklin-Myers and Jermaine Johnson II arriving in the offseason. On the Houston side of things, CJ Stroud is in his fourth year awaiting a new contract (and currently, Houston and Stroud have quite a bit of separation in negotiations), Nico Collins will be his typical thousand-yard self, and the defense could be one of the best units in football this season. However, and this will anger Tennessee and Houston fans, neither market is all that big of a draw. The Texans have never been flexed into the Week 18 Sunday night slot since flex scheduling was implemented in 2006, and the Titans have only been flexed in twice (both against the Colts in 2007 and 2018). The NFL generally aims for massive television draws in its final game, and while this game could be quite interesting playoff-wise, it’s doubtful the game gets flexed in.

11. Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

You know the meme where three different Spider-Mans are in a circle pointing at each other? That’s the NFC South this year. Each team thinks they’re the best in the division, only for all of them to end up in a four-way 8-9 tie for the division lead. The nice way to put the NFC South is that it sucks. The Panthers were my pick to win the NFC South this year, but it’s truly up for grabs now because of key injuries to tackle Ikem Ekwonu and linebacker Nic Scourton. I have belief in Bryce Young and co. but the offensive line is in shambles right now. The only reason this game is below Buccaneers-Saints is because the Falcons are just a tiny bit worse. Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t even played this preseason and is still expected to steal the starting job, if only because Tua Tagovailoa has apparently been the definition of unplayable during training camp. Their offensive supporting cast carries so much promise with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, not to mention Bijan Robinson, that’s it’s a disservice to the fanbase that there isn’t someone under center that can act as a capable NFL quarterback. I hear Mac Jones is available for trade?

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough might be the breakout player of the year in the NFL, if there were such an award. Chris Olave has the potential to lead the league in receiving yards this year and Travis Etienne Jr. will provide a boost to a team that has lacked punch since Drew Brees’ retirement. Rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson had been in for a big year, but injured his hamstring in August and will spend the first two months of the season on injured reserve. I don’t think it’s outrageous to argue that at this team’s peak, they could run away with the division. The same could be said for Tampa Bay, with returning quarterback Baker Mayfield, receivers Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, and nose tackle Vita Vea. In other worlds, this game would be top two for Week 18’s Sunday Night slot. Unfortunately, the NFC South always seems to one-up one another when it comes to underwhelming at the sport of football and this feels like a game destined to win the NFC South with both teams entering Week 18 at 7-9 apiece.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

This is the point where I’d argue we start entering “actual contender” status. The Jaguars are coming off a 2025 season in which they saw a 13-4 season end in a division title and their second-best regular season record of all time. Their season ended in the wild card at the hands of Josh Allen, but Jacksonville established themselves as a force in the AFC. They return a large portion of their core, even with the losses of Devin Lloyd, Greg Newsome II, and Travis Etienne Jr. and could make a strong case for back-to-back AFC South titles. Indianapolis is one of those big question marks with boom-or-bust potential: the Colts were 8-2 after Week 10 with quarterback Daniel Jones, but went 0-7 after their Week 11 bye with Jones tearing his Achilles in Week 14. The team resigned receiver Alec Pierce in the offseason and added Keenan Allen after their midseason trade for Sauce Gardner, so talent exists across the board for Indy. If the pieces can be put together, the former team of Pat McAfee could be the primary challenge to Jacksonville for the AFC South. The primary case against this game for SNF is the teams’ ratings, but the NFL has indicated it will always prioritize playoff stakes above all else in Week 18.

8. Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Somehow, I consider all 4 AFC West teams to have a plausible chance at winning their division. I’ll get into the Broncos and Chargers later (and why they’re easily the frontrunners), but it’s not outrageous to consider a No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza-led Las Vegas team in the mix, and certainly possible to imagine a resurgent Chiefs squad win their 10th AFC West in 11 seasons. Kansas City is a small market no longer, and Las Vegas will always carry high ratings. Of course, Kirk Cousins is starting Week 1 for the Raiders, but this feels like one of those Drake Maye-esque situations where Mendoza takes the reins by midseason. The biggest issue here is that when discussing potential improvement for the Chiefs, it’s hard to find where they meaningfully improved. Running back is the obvious one, with Kenneth Walker III joining the offensive room, but aside from that, they lost Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie to the Rams in the offseason and no matter how much Kansas City would love to wish it up, L’Jarius Sneed and No. 6 overall pick Mansoor Delane are not good enough to replace that talent.

7. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

This game should be top 5. It really, really, really should. The Bears are stacked. Third-year quarterback Caleb Williams leads a loaded Chicago offense with options D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. The offensive line might be the best in football, with Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Darnell Wright anchoring the unit. Head coach Ben Johnson is a wizard. Unfortunately, the problem is the defense. The Bears’ secondary was decimated in the offseason and their linebacker corps lost Tremaine Edmunds as well, not that it was much good last season anyway. The ceiling for the Bears is however far their defense can take them, and right now, the answer feels like it’s not that far. Meanwhile, Minnesota was a team that felt playoff-ready last season, save for their disasterclass at quarterback. They (somehow?) ended up third in their division and retained most of their team in the offseason. Linebacker Jonathan Greenard left, which was a rough loss for their defense, but other than that, they had the makings of a contender, so long as the quarterback position was solved. And then Kyler Murray was signed. Words fail to articulate the scale of this catastrophe for the Vikings and how badly it impacts their 2026 chances. That is the only reason this game is below most of the others. If Murray proves to succeed, well then, I’ll eat my words. For now, though, this is a travesty. J.J. McCarthy starting by Week 9 feels entirely possible.

6. Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

The entire NFC East feels like it’s a nice, large question mark. The Dallas Cowboys have been the NFL’s go-to primetime team on almost any occasion for the past three decades (though in recent years, the Chiefs have laid claim to that spot instead), and as such any game they play with the potential of a primetime flex is always shot to the top of the list. It also helps that they have a pretty good team as well, of course. Dak Prescott quarterbacking CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens accompanied by Quinnen Williams, Cobie Durant, and No. 11 pick Caleb Downs? Who doesn’t love that?! It’s also great that Jerry Jones feeds endless soundbites to the NFL content machine, staying in the spotlight as much as possible. The Commanders also make for a solid draw. They’re the oldest team in the NFL by snap-weighted average and have a watchable team with No. 3 overall pick Jayden Daniels (if anyone sees the number 5 in this column, erase it from your memory) and receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, they were decimated last year and Daniels seems to have the Robert Griffin III-esque propensity for injury. If the Commanders peak, this could be Game 272. But judging off preseason expectations, it’s too hard to say.

5. Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Similarly to above, I also truly do not know what to make of the Eagles or the Giants. Philadelphia is an absolutely massive TV market, and New York is New York. The teams and the rivalrous history behind their matchups always treat us to a classic. That by itself makes this game worthy of a top 5 slot. However, I’m not entirely convinced we’ll see Philadelphia and New York in a playoff push at the end of the season. New York is New York, with incoming new head coach John Harbaugh leading a team with second-year offensive weapons Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo. On the Eagles’ side of the ball, Philadelphia has their fifth offensive coordinator in as many seasons, hiring former Packers quarterback coach Sean Mannion as offensive coordinator. Will it solve Jalen Hurts’ struggles throwing over the middle of the field? Who knows, but at this point, the Eagles are running out of options with their $255 million quarterback. Between the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, and Commanders, I’m pretty confident saying that only two of those teams will be in the playoff race, but it’s anyone’s guess as to which two. Let’s just hope it’s either the Eagles and the Giants or the Commanders and the Cowboys, so that one of these games can be a classic.

4. Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are coming off an AFC Championship appearance in which they almost assuredly would have won if not for their franchise quaterback, Bo Nix, suffering a broken ankle in overtime of their divisional playoff win against the Bills. They’ve done nothing but improve in the offseason, adding wideout Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins and extending Courtland Sutton and Zach Allen. John Franklin-Myers was their only notable loss to the Titans, but their defensive depth is deep enough that it shouldn’t even matter. The team that saw home-field advantage and the #1 seed in the AFC last season should be even better this season. The Chargers are the exact same story. Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel comes in hot off a firing by the Miami Dolphins, but there are plenty of strong coordinators that suffer as head coaches. Tight end David Njoku and fullback Alec Ingold arrived in free agency along center Tyler Biadasz (though Biadasz suffered an ACL injury in training camp and is now out for the season). They should be vastly improved following a wild card loss to the Patriots. This has all the makings for a Week 18 classic with the division and a potential #1 seed on the line.

3. Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

This would be a repeat of 2023’s Game 272 that saw a resurgent Lions team knock out the Packers in the final game of Aaron Rodgers’ Green Bay career. The Lions and Packers battling for the NFC North title would be a sight to behold. Both these teams are massive media draws (the Packers have 6 primetime games while the Lions have 4), the Packers haven’t won a division championship since 2021, and both are desperate to get to a Super Bowl stage fresh off disappointing seasons that saw their postseason dreams end well short of expectations. Green Bay will have pass-rusher Micah Parsons back from an ACL tear, Javon Hargrave was signed in free agency, and Josh Jacobs (pending his domestic violence case) anchors the offense. Detroit signed tailback Isiah Pacheco in free agency after the loss of David Montgomery and acquired linemen Juice Scruggs and D.J. Wonnum. If both can keep in lockstep for the NFC North, this game is a lock to find itself on primetme.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Speaking of a certain quarterback, the script writes itself. Aaron Rodgers’ final regular-season game, coincidentally against the Steelers’ bitter division rival in a rematch of last year’s Game 272 that saw a Tyler Loop missed field goal in the final seconds to send Pittsburgh to the playoffs? It really doesn’t get better than this. The AFC North came down to the wire between these two teams last season and there’s been no evidence to suggest that that changes this year. Both teams will feature first-year head coaches in Jesse Minter (Baltimore) and Mike McCarthy (Steelers), but both are well-versed in heated rivalry games. The Ravens signed defensive end Trey Hendrickson in the offseason alongside guard John Simpson, attempting to strengthen both lines after Baltimore saw their season destruction occur via the trenches in 2025. The Steelers kept their roster mostly intact, overhauling the coaching staff instead. If all goes as planned, this game will find itself on primetime in January 2027.

1. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

So many games. So many enticing choices. And in the end, the call was not that difficult. The two best teams in the NFL squaring off for what will likely be the NFC West title and home-field advantage in the playoffs makes for peak entertainment. The Rams are absolutely loaded, acquiring Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie in the offseason and signing Aaron Donald out of retirement. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams are all available on the offensive side of the ball and this team is the odds-on favorite for the Super Bowl right now. Seattle, of course, is the defending champions, entering their next era under new owner Vinod Khosla. They drafted Jadarian Price with the No. 32 overall pick and resigned superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon to massive, market-resetting contracts. Both these teams will find themselves in the playoff hunt come January seeking a Super Bowl title, because anything else is a disappointment.