With @schedulerelease, we’re past the midpoint of the 2026 NFL season. Teams that you never would have expected to be in contention for the #1 pick are entering sell-off mode (see: Chargers, Los Angeles and Eagles, Philadelphia), and teams you wrote off to begin the season somehow are at the top of their divisions (see: Vikings, Minnesota and Giants, New York). Apologies for the absence in Week 9, but we’re back now in Week 10. In Week 8, I went 10-3, while @schedulerelease went 7-6. On the season, I’m 24-16 to SR’s 21-19.
All lines via DraftKings. All times ET.
TNF: Washington Commanders (2-5-1) at New York Giants (5-2-1)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video
Line: New York -1.5, O/U 42.5
Who doesn’t love this J.J. McCarthy revenge arc? John Harbaugh must be over the moon watching his once-lost season come back to life at the hands of his younger brother’s ex-protégé. Meanwhile, the Commanders just might be the opposite, watching disaster unfold as Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels find new and innovative ways to lose games in the most confounding ways. The more disciplined team wins.
Brandon’s pick: Giants 27, Commanders 17
The Giants are sitting with a two-and-a-half-game lead over the Cowboys for first place in the NFC East, and they can put the division further out of reach with a 75% sweep against the Commanders. The last time these two met, it was wacky, and we could be in for another doozy in the rain on Thursday night. The Giants are somehow 5-2-1, but they have mostly looked like an average team so far. The Commanders aren’t much better, but I’m impressed by how their defense has played over the last two and a half games. I think that trend will continue in this game, and the Commanders will control the game well on the ground. Expect JJ McCarthy to turn the ball over once or twice in this one. I will take the Commanders to upset the Giants and make things interesting in the NFC East.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Commanders 21, Giants 17
Munich: New England Patriots (5-4) vs. Detroit Lions (6-2)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on FOX
Line: Detroit -2.5, O/U 49.5
What is wrong with the Lions' defense? It probably starts with defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, who, despite performances from bottom-feeder offenses in Miami and Minnesota, has done absolutely nothing to redeem his unit’s play. Toss in the lack of defensive additions and the loss of star linebacker Jack Campbell, and the ingredients are there for Drake Maye to feast in Munich. Corey Kiner has a day against this Detroit defensive line, and Jared Goff can’t bail out his defense in Munich.
Brandon’s pick: Patriots 33, Lions 31
The Patriots got completely exposed by the Packers last week and have another tough NFC North opponent up next on deck. The Lions have ripped off four straight wins heading into this matchup and have seemingly turned it around on defense. I would expect the majority of the public to pick the Lions here as a no-brainer. However, this feels like a textbook bounce-back spot for the Patriots, as Vrabel’s teams have historically played well after losses. Back in Week 4, they rebounded from a 29-point loss to the Jaguars to beat the Bills in Buffalo. They are also clinging to their playoff lives, and their defense will bounce back in this one. While they are still banged up on the offensive line and at receiver, AJ Brown could be back in this game. The Lions have not been very sharp offensively in recent weeks, and I think they lose a close one in Munich.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Patriots 27, Lions 24
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Kansas City -3, O/U 46.5
This is a quietly intriguing game to me. The Falcons are perennially inconsistent, but when they catch fire, Atlanta is a team to behold. There’s seemingly infinite offensive talent on this team, and although their defense has been depleted, they can win a shootout on any given day. The Chiefs are a Super Bowl contender, but have lost two of their last three and, against elite competition, haven’t yet proved their mettle. Kansas City prevails, but it’s closer than you’d expect.
Brandon’s pick: Chiefs 24, Falcons 22
I’m expecting a shootout in this game. Since Michael Penix entered the lineup, the Falcons have shown that they can move the ball well at home. This is a matchup of two of the most talented running backs, Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker, so both defenses will have to game plan around stopping those guys. Both teams should get it going on the ground. While the Falcons have proven that they play up to the talent of their opponents over the past couple of years, I don’t think they will be able to win this one. I’ll take the Chiefs in a close one.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Chiefs 34, Falcons 30
Houston Texans (3-5) at Cleveland Browns (5-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Houston -3.5, O/U 38.5
Deshaun Watson is back for the Browns, and that’s not a good thing. Cleveland has stuck with its below-average quarterback for absolutely no reason besides delaying the inevitable thus far, choosing to prioritize Watson over the development of young quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. Against a ravenous Houston defense, that plan will collapse. C.J. Stroud throws for a million while the Texans crush the Browns.
Brandon’s pick: Texans 41, Browns 19
This is the first meeting between these two teams since the 2023 AFC Wild Card game, and a lot has changed since. The Browns are falling back to earth after two straight losses, getting blown out by the Steelers and failing to beat the Saints on a game-winning 2-point conversion in a game they got somewhat outplayed in. Meanwhile, the Texans’ offense is humming off a 44-point performance against the Chargers, who boasted a top-ten pass defense despite their abysmal team struggles. That was a really impressive performance that most of the public is writing off. CJ Stroud has been playing incredible football, and the Texans are a scary team if he is able to keep that level of play up and their defense rounds into form. The key matchup in this game that leans towards the Texans is the Texans' treacherous defensive line against the Browns’ subpar offensive line. I expect the Texans to sack and force turnovers from whoever ends up starting at quarterback, and C.J. Stroud to have another good game. Give me the Texans to start pushing towards a wild card spot.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Texans 27, Browns 13
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Green Bay -3, O/U 42.5
Something about this game just gives me the chills. Kirk Cousins is back as a Viking, which has always just felt right. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can be happy and well-fed again, while the Minnesota defense has reason to believe in their season. The power of friendship storyline in this game will carry Minnesota over a Green Bay offense that lost Josh Jacobs to a broken finger and has yet to return Micah Parsons.
Brandon’s pick: Vikings 28, Packers 20
The Packers made a statement last week by scoring a record 45 points at Gillette Stadium last week, setting a record for opposing teams playing in that stadium. Jordan Love has been playing incredibly and should be in the MVP conversation, thanks to his booming connections with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Meanwhile, the Vikings hope Kirk Cousins is able to salvage their offense that looked inept on Monday night against the Bills. Cousins should elevate this offense, given that he spent six years in Minnesota, knows the system well under Kevin O’Connell, and has proven chemistry with Justin Jefferson. That being said, I think it might take some time for Cousins to settle back into this offense, and I cannot see them sweeping the Packers this season. When these teams first met in Week 1, the Packers had the most yards (419) out of any other opponent the Vikings have played this season, but the game unraveled behind multiple turnovers in the fourth quarter. The Packers’ defense has also been playing amazingly since Week 4, and Jonathan Gannon has proven to be an elite defensive coordinator. I will take the Packers to win one here and spoil Kirk Cousins’ reunion with the Vikings.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Packers 26, Vikings 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Jacksonville -10, O/U 45.5
The Jaguars are loaded this year. Trading a haul of future draft picks for expiring, old safeties and non-Pro Bowl defensive tackles may prove to be a costly decision, but for the simple calculus of this season, it doesn’t matter. Jacksonville boasts one of the most complete teams in the league, and against a Tennessee team that just traded its two defensive cores, they’ll run all over Robert Saleh.
Brandon’s pick: Jaguars 45, Titans 12
The Jaguars have gone all in on their defense, trading for three defensive players before the trade deadline. The Titans looked very competitive in the two games leading into the bye week thanks to Tony Pollard finding a rhythm on the ground and Cam Ward playing better football. The Jaguars have been able to blow out multiple teams this year, and the city is hyped for them entering contention mode. I don’t see this game being any different, even though the Titans have been better recently and it is a road divisional game. The Jaguars will eliminate the Titans’ run game and force Cam Ward to make plays. Last year, the Titans scored a total of ten points in two meetings against Jacksonville. I’m taking the Jaguars in another blowout.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Jaguars 35, Titans 13
Miami Dolphins (1-7) at Indianapolis Colts (2-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Indianapolis -2.5, O/U 42.5
Kyle McCord’s first NFL start. Color me…intrigued? McCord is almost certainly not the Dolphins’ long-term answer at quarterback, but he represents a chance to prove his mettle, at minimum, as a backup quarterback in the NFL, at a time when competent play is sorely lacking (just ask Kevin O’Connell). Against most other teams, I’d say he’s in for a bad day, but this Colts team has been decimated by trades of (most) of their stars, and Daniel Jones has regressed to the absolute worst version of himself. Miami wins, and South Beach has a team to be excited about in 2027.
Brandon’s pick: Dolphins 20, Colts 16
The Colts have sold everyone except Jonathan Taylor, and the Dolphins have lost their best offensive player (Malik Willis) and defensive player (Zach Sieler) to injured reserve, so this game feels like one that could have serious implications on the draft order in April. Miami is starting Kyle McCord at quarterback. McCord had an impressive preseason game for the Packers, throwing for four touchdowns and leading an 11-point comeback with under five minutes to go against the Cardinals. Miami has quietly been playing solid defense, ranking 13th in yards per game and coming off a game where they held the Lions to 19 points. However, I think they’ll have trouble stopping Jonathan Taylor without Sieler in the lineup. The Colts still have more talent than the Dolphins and will win this one.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 17
Carolina Panthers (3-5) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Carolina -1.5, O/U 47.5
Two teams that are absolutely horrible at being any form of consistent. What could go wrong? I think these two teams are roughly equal: two young quarterbacks that can hit highs most other signal-callers can’t, but can also find lows that will cause NFL coaches to try and run themselves through the stadium walls. These defenses are also banged up and bad, and honestly, I had to flip a coin to pick this. Tails says Carolina wins?
Brandon’s pick: Panthers 24, Saints 21
Both teams sit at 3-5 and find themselves in a battle for first place in the NFC South. Even though the Panthers won the division last year, they got swept by the Saints. I don’t think either of these teams will end up winning the division, but I think the Saints are the team to back in this spot, playing at home. The Panthers’ cornerbacks are still injured, and Tyler Shough will have a good game. On the other side, Bryce Young will be efficient throwing the ball and Chuba Hubbard can get it going on the ground. I’m expecting points, but I think the Saints will emerge victorious.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Saints 28, Panthers 24
Buffalo Bills (7-1) at New York Jets (2-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Buffalo -8.5, O/U 49.5
The Bills should win this game. Easily. Handily. Also, you never know! Geno Smith has been passable in developing New York’s assortment of weapons, and Kenyon Sadiq has impressed rapidly over the first half of the season. David Bailey has shown signs of superstardom, though the rest of the Jets’ defense remains questionable. Josh Allen will have a day, but Geno Smith keeps it close. Also, Allen — please stop throwing nonsense interceptions.
Brandon’s pick: Bills 38, Jets 27
There isn’t much to be said about this one. The Bills should take care of business here. The Jets’ defense is reeling and Aaron Glenn might be counting his days. I will say, however, don’t let the last two weeks convince you that the Bills’ defense is good. Amani Hooker is a huge addition, but there are still holes across that side of the ball. Jets should score.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Bills 34, Jets 27
Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Seattle -3.5, O/U 43.5
The only storyline here is Fernando Mendoza. Seattle has had a bit of a fit recently with Sam Darnold and his tendencies to turn the ball over, but he remains a superior quarterback to Drew Lock in almost every way. When he’s ready to start, he should be the one with the ball. Meanwhile, Mendoza will see his first start with Las Vegas come against a Mike Macdonald-led defense that has become better than ever. Klint Kubiak will do his best, but will fall short against his ex-team.
Brandon’s pick: Seahawks 26, Raiders 24
Welcome to the NFL, Fernando Mendoza! Good luck against this vicious Seattle defense. As much as I hope he does well, this is an incredibly difficult matchup for Mendoza’s first NFL start. On the other side of the ball, I don’t see how the Raiders stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks need to keep pushing for a wild card spot and they will tack on another win.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Seahawks 30, Raiders 13
Los Angeles Rams (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Los Angeles -8.5, O/U 47.5
The Rams have to stay on track. They have almost no other option. Losing four early games has put Sean McVay in a hole that is extremely difficult to work out of in what is an incredibly tough NFC. Their division chances are almost zero, and their odds of making the playoffs rely on them losing, at most, two more games this season. It feels improbable, to say the least. The Cardinals are bad, and Los Angeles will capitalize on a first-start Carson Beck. I don’t think anyone scores a touchdown on Sunday.
Brandon’s pick: Rams 19, Cardinals 12
The Rams lost to the Cardinals at home four weeks ago, and now they will be operating an offense without Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. In that Week 6 matchup, the Cardinals did a phenomenal job at sustaining long drives and controlling the game. However, the Cardinals look a lot different as well now, starting rookie Carson Beck without his top receiver, Michael Wilson. We’ll see how the Rams offense looks without anyone talented catching the ball, but they should still be able to run the ball. I was quite impressed with the Rams’ performance on defense last week with Myles Garrett back on the roster, and I expect them to carry this matchup. Regardless, I don’t see a world where the 2026 Rams get swept by the Cardinals.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Rams 23, Cardinals 7
San Francisco 49ers (7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: San Francisco -4.5, O/U 55.5
With each passing day, my confidence in the Cowboys to make the playoffs has decreased substantially. The Giants are running away with the division while Dallas struggles with tanking teams. Throw in actual games against real teams, and you’re witnessing a recipe for abject disaster. San Francisco is balanced and deadly behind an MVP candidate in Brock Purdy. Make any mistakes, and this Fred Warner-led 49ers defense will make you pay.
Brandon’s pick: 49ers 41, Cowboys 27
The Cowboys have lost four straight games to the 49ers since 2020, including two playoff matchups. They also just traded for Keenan Allen, and I expect him to make an impact on offense immediately, with Mike Evans probably still sidelined for this game, although Deebo Samuel could be back. The main advantage that the 49ers have over the Cowboys is that Kyle Shanahan has been the major difference in the head-coaching matchup. Overall, the Cowboys’ defense feels outmatched here, so I’m going to roll with the 49ers.
@schedulerelease’s pick: 49ers 38, Cowboys 30
SNF: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: Cincinnati -3.5, O/U 48.5
Quietly, this may be the game of the week. Two AFC North teams sitting at 6-2 vying for the division lead. What more could you ask for? Furthermore, the Bengals and Steelers are probably the only options left to win the division. The Ravens are banged up, while the Browns are the Browns, meaning that this game is a playoff matchup by all qualifiers. Joe Burrow has played like the MVP at midseason, but Cincinnati’s offense is one-dimensional with a lack of any running game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense is similarly dysfunctional, but reversed. I like Pittsburgh’s defense more than Cincinnati’s, but I like Burrow far more than Rodgers right now.
Brandon’s pick: Bengals 35, Steelers 27
This may be the best Steelers team since 2018, but this is also the best Bengals team since 2022. This matchup could end up deciding the division when the regular season is over. In Week 3, the Steelers beat the Bengals at Acrisure Stadium behind a few key costly mistakes by Cincinnati. To me, that loss feels like a fluke, and the Bengals will make things right this time around. While there is a real possibility that the Steelers get their run game going and find themselves with a lead, I don’t think their secondary is prepared to stop Chase and Higgins. Burrow will play a great game and give the Bengals the win.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Bengals 26, Steelers 20
MNF: Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) at Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN
Line: Baltimore -2.5, O/U 38.5
I am fascinated here. How bad can two bad teams get? The only reason I’m picking the Chargers here is that they have to get a win at some point (right?). Jacoby Brissett is not exactly a good quarterback, and Baltimore fans will quickly find themselves looking to 2027 rather than praying that the football gods will grant them a playoff berth in 2026.
Brandon’s pick: Chargers 13, Ravens 7
The winless Chargers head to Baltimore in a Monday Night Football matchup that looked great before the season but will now be a tough watch given the circumstances of both teams. This is the third straight matchup in primetime between these two, and Jesse Minter is facing off against his former team. The last couple of weeks have proven that the Chargers are unpickable in 2026. Their one bright spot of the team was their pass defense, but even that got torn apart last week by CJ Stroud. At least they finally scored a touchdown last week, though. I’m excited to see how Jacoby Brissett will fit into the Ravens’ offense, and I expect them to get Zay Flowers back in the game plan. Ravens should get the Monday Night victory, and their playoff hopes will still be alive.
@schedulerelease’s pick: Ravens 23, Chargers 10
